Cards

I think the best way to evaluate the Cards off season to this point is to look at the goals we had going into the season:

1) Fix the left hand of the bullpen
2) Figure out who is going to close
3) Find a starter
4) Trade an outfielder
5) Shore up the middle infield

Let’s look at each of these in turn before we rush to judgment on what we have done so far. Before we do that, let’s put some things in context. I think most Cards fans who are unhappy with our off season to this point feel that Cards ownership is sitting on significant income without making significant pay outs. A value of 10 mil a year has been floating around for several months now as a figure we should have to spend based on contracts that came off the books in relation to last year’s payroll. First things first, this is not last year, in case you have not noticed we are in the middle of the worst economic downturn since WWII. Just keeping our payroll steady is something to be happy with (you can thank the All-Star game for that). If you take a close look at the roster matrix posted here http://www.vivaelbirdos.com/stories/5 you will see how many have gotten to that 10mil figure. On review I think several of those numbers are low (Ankiel/ludwick) which leaves us with more like 5-7 mil currently. For those of you who still think we are cheap you may want to check out this article http://stl-sabr.bajink.com/fungoes/?p=1551.

1) Fix the left hand of the bullpen - There has been a lot of lament around the water cooler about our pickups so far. I think the most frequent complaint centers around the perception of the cards being cheep and picking up retreads. At the end of the day this new group of LOOGYs are likely going to be better than last year’s was. Take a look at this article for more information http://stl-sabr.bajink.com/fungoes/?cat=10. Now we have less than 4mil invested in this group which is certainly a lot less than Ohman/Afelt/Fuentes were going to cost. In fact we saved about 15mil a year and lost about 2-3 wins based on performance projections. Good investments.

2) Closer – Review of last year’s performance shows that the Cards blew the most saves in the majors. Did you also know that the Cards had the most save opportunities in the majors? If you put Brad Lidge on our team last year we would have averaged 4-6 more wins based on the numbers. This puts us ahead of the Brewers and into the playoffs. Seems like a no brain decision, go out and find a lights out closer and pay them what they want. Not so fast, remember we really only have about 7mil to play with (being optimistic). A lights out closer is going to cost us more than that. Now if you look at last year with Mott and Perez finishing off games instead of Franklin/Izzy those numbers start to narrow up a lot. Do you want to spend 10mil on two wins?

3) Find a starter – This is where I feel that we have been let down. First I think we over spent on Lohse. Four years? Have we learned nothing? Right now we have a rotation of Wainright, Lohse, The Coronel, Pineiro, and maybe Carp. There are two very big question marks in there for me. Basically we have a number 2, two number 4’s, and a number 5 pitcher on our staff. I pray that we can pick at least one starter up with the money we saved by passing on and expensive closer or LOOGY. The other option would be to trade an outfielder for pitching. Unless Carp comes back looking like his Cy Young self we need more pitching if we want any chance of overtaking the Cubs. I still like Sheets if he can be gotten for 20 and 2. Johnson would have been the best fit however. Still can’t figure why we did not jump on that.
4) Outfield – Right now we have 6 potential big league outfielders. It looks like Rasmus is going to get a shot this year and you know Lud will be out there. That leaves Ankiel, Duncan, The Shoe man, and Mather as potential other starters (Not to mention some minor league 3rd sackers that will be seeing time in the outfield soon). Duncan and schumaker have limited trade value and Mather is more of a backup at this point leaving Ankiel as our one major bargaining chip. I still would like to see him moved for pitching (but to who?). Hopeful he and Duncan come out swinging giving us some trade bait either this spring or at the deadline. At this point I feel we need starting pitching so bad I would trade an outfielder, Anderson, and one of our third base prospects for a #2 starter if at all possible.

5) Middle infield – Even a bad Green should be worth more production than our SS last year. I like Kennedy at second one last year. We could not afford to give him away and his defense was nothing short of spectacular last year. A full year of Green and Kennedy up the middle should be at least as good as Miles/Izturis with the glove. I also think regular playing time in a contract year will go a long way to help finding his stroke.

In conclusion, we are a better team than we were last year. How much better? My guess is about 5 wins. We are still very week in the starting rotation (what if Carp can’t go). If we can get at least a #2 via trade or FA signing I will consider this off season very successful. If not, I think a great opportunity will be missed. It will not be that long until a certain future HOF 1st basemen gets a substantial raise.